West-central and north-central regions of Arkansas are expected to see the largest amounts of snow from a winter storm forecasted to hit the state Thursday afternoon, according to the National Weather Service in Little Rock.
By 11:30 a.m. Thursday, the National Weather Service in Tulsa said it was receiving reports from west central Arkansas of one to two inches of snow per hour.
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“We’re starting to see snow across portions of the western flank of the state, from Fort Smith down to Mena, and even to the area down (near) … U.S. 71,” said meteorologist Colby Pope just before noon. “Also down into DeQueen we have a rain/snow mix that we’ve been observing around the Texarkana area.”
Pope said the storm was “on track” compared to projections.
“With this first round of snow, we don’t expect to see drastic accumulations … across most of state until tonight,” Pope said. “This event is going to extend into well into the day on Friday, as well . … Places that are in central and eastern Arkansas can expect snowfall continuing throughout most of the day on Friday and into Friday evening, and then things will taper off a little bit sooner across the western portions of the state, around by mid-day Friday.”
The most recent forecast update projects six to seven inches of snow accumulation in the Little Rock area through Friday evening.
The highest risk for ice is Thursday evening, specifically west of Pine Bluff and east of Texarkana.
Northern Arkansas, from Fayetteville all the way to Jonesboro could get anywhere from five to seven inches of snow.
The weather service believes there will be a small corridor in that area, but it’s not sure where, that could get more than that.
“Once you get south of Little Rock and then toward places such as Pine Bluff, Fordyce, over toward Prescott, we start to see three to five inches of snow,” Pope said. “Then across far southern Arkansas, with El Dorado, over to Monticello, you’ll be lucky to see maybe an inch or two of snow, maybe even less than that.”
This is the area of the state that will see the largest mix of snow, sleet and frozen rain over the next two days.
“A few tenths of an inch to around a quarter of an inch (of ice) is going to be possible,” Pope said. “There could be a few isolated areas where we can see over a quarter of an inch of freezing rain, and that’s going to be across that southern tier of Arkansas.”
Once the storm arrives, the weather service warns against “dangerous or impossible driving conditions” across areas of the Ouachita Mountains and Central Arkansas.
Below average temperatures are forecast through at least the middle of next week as a cold northwest flow arrives in the state from Canada.
TRANSPORTATION PLANS
As the winter storm crossed into Arkansas Thursday morning, 140 Arkansas National Guardsmen were mobilized by Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders to staff 28 winter weather response teams to assist the Arkansas State Police with transporting stranded motorists to a safe area until road conditions improve.
Around 3:15 p.m., there was a traffic slowdown near exit 101 on Interstate 40 for a 18-wheeler truck that has slid partially off the highway.
Around 1:47, traffic was backed up on I-40 eastbound near mile marker 4 west of Van Buren due to an accident, according to a report by ARDOT. BY 3:35, traffic was at a standstill in that area.
By 3:35 p.m., traffic was nearly at a standstill at mile marker 1.8 south of Van Buren for a car that was stalled in the northbound lane.
The Arkansas Division of Emergency Management activated its State Emergency Operations Center to Level 1 just before 12:30 p.m., the agency announced.
ADEM staff members will work in the center until 7 p.m. Sunday to assist Arkansas counties. ADEM will continue to host daily coordination calls with the National Weather Service and its Emergency Support Function partners, including the Arkansas Department of Transportation, the Arkansas State Police and the Arkansas National Guard.
The Bill and Hillary Clinton National Airport/Adams Field pre-treated its main runway in preparation for the storm.
By 3 p.m., snow was falling there, the runway was wet and flights were still operating.
According to flightview.com, 16 flights throughout the day have been cancelled, while two were delayed.
According to flightview.com, seven flights throughout the day have been cancelled.
Wednesday, Jan. 8 | Little Rock, Hot Springs brace for state’s heaviest snow through early Friday:
A winter storm is expected to dump as much as 10 inches of snowfall on the Little Rock metro area through Friday morning, with much of the rest of the state predicted to receive at least 3 or 4 inches, according to Wednesday evening’s forecast from the National Weather Service in Little Rock.
Wednesday evening’s prediction called for slightly more snow than forecasters were predicting earlier in the afternoon, and even at that time, National Weather Service meteorologist Colby Pope called the outlook for the area around Little Rock a “one in five year kind of forecast.”
“It’s not unprecedented, [but] this is definitely forecast to be one of our higher-end events,” the meteorologist said. “Little Rock gets an average of around 3 inches of snow for the season.”
Little Rock and Hot Springs were predicted to get the most snow, but Wednesday evening’s forecast also called for 7 to 8 inches in the Mena area and between 3 and 7 inches in all parts of the state except for the southernmost row of counties.
“A fairly large area from Murfreesboro to Arkadelphia to Brinkley to Searcy and back to Fort Smith are expected to get around 7 inches of snow,” Joe Goudsward, a forecaster with the weather service, said Wednesday afternoon.
Those southern counties were expected to get less than an inch of snow, but the forecast called for freezing rain and ice that could accumulate as much as a half-inch thick.
Freezing rain can cause more issues than snow, Pope said. Ice can accumulate on power lines and cause damage as well as cover roads, making safe travel difficult.
And with temperatures set to remain cold even after the winter storm has left the state, ice can remain, causing additional problems.
“You could have this issue of it getting warm enough during the day to melt the snow, but it gets so cold overnight that the water refreezes as ice,” Goudsward said. “It won’t be arctic, single-digit cold, but it will still be very cold, and we could have several nights of thawing and refreezing.”
According to the Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index included in the weather briefing, there is a likely chance that snow will cause moderate and possibly even some major impacts to parts of the state.
“The probabilities for moderate winter weather impacts from snow have increased over the central third of the state,” the briefing stated. Confidence for moderate or higher impacts from snow are greatest across portions of the Ouachita Mountains along with Little Rock and Hot Springs.
Moderate impacts mean that interruptions to daily life can be expected and that drivers should use extra caution while traveling.
Major impacts, of which there was a 40% chance in the Little Rock area as a result of snow accumulation, include considerable disruptions to daily life, such as “dangerous or impossible driving conditions” and widespread closures.
Pope said Little Rock could expect to see some light snow starting around noon Thursday.
“The snow will be light, and you might see some people walk around and say, ‘Oh goodness, this dusting is it? It was just a busted forecast.’ But the snowfall rate will increase overnight Thursday into early Friday and then continue through the evening,” he said.
All of Arkansas except Benton, Ashley and Chicot counties is under a winter storm warning, the weather service said in a post on X on Wednesday evening. Those three counties are under a winter weather advisory.
The winter storm warning is set to go into effect around noon on Thursday and remain until 6 p.m. on Friday.
Goudsward said the upgrade for most of the state to a winter storm warning as opposed to a watch was largely due to timing.
“We’re further along. The thinking behind it hasn’t really changed but the event is in sight,” Goudsward said Wednesday afternoon.
A winter storm warning is issued based on location as well as confidence that a winter weather event is going to happen, Pope, the meteorologist, said.
“For a warning to be issued, we have an 80% or greater confidence that a winter weather event will meet or exceed a location’s snowfall criteria,” Pope said Wednesday morning. A winter storm watch does not require a certain confidence level to be issued.
The snowfall amount criteria for issuing a winter storm warning varies across Arkansas.
The criteria now incorporates impact and vulnerability with regard to winter weather, the briefing stated. For many northwestern parts of the state, the forecast needs to call for at least 4 inches of snow or more before a warning is issued. For areas in Central and eastern Arkansas, 3 inches of snow should be forecast while far southern Arkansas only needs a forecast of 2 inches.
Current forecast and the winter storm watches and warnings are expected to be changed and refined.
This story has been updated. It was originally published at 11:56 a.m. under the headline "Much of state upgraded to winter storm warning, winter storm watch expanded," then expanded and headlined "Most of state now under winter storm warning."